Additional Features

Scroll down to the bottom for Candidate News Tracker from the Washington Post, and early Caucus and Primary Results prior to Super Tuesday from the Associated Press

--------------------------------------------------------

PLEASE LEAVE COMMENTS
If you find any of the resources on this site useful I'd love to hear so.

Friday, October 24, 2008

America is feeling blue

So somewhere in the time frame of the primaries when the election was basically between McCain, Clinton and Obama I decided to sign up for all three candidate's mailing lists. Now that Clinton is out of the picture my subscription has changed to being registered for HillPac.com. This is fine, as I still find this kind of news interesting. The purpose of this new site is to try to help publicize and fundraise for state elections where Democrats may be taking over Senate seats previously held by Republicans. I thought this was an worth cause for the ex-candidate, and have enjoyed the e-mails. However, as I'm sure others have seen the Democrats are poised to just explode their majority in both the Senate and the House. Some are even saying they may have a 60% majority meaning they can essentially do whatever it is that they want.

Is this a good thing?

I'm a registered Democrat so don't get me wrong, I'm sure I'll agree with the majority of the things they end up doing, but is this a good thing for Democracy? Checks and blanaces are important, but it seems like having that much of a majority and having a Democratic President just tosses some of our checks and balances out the window. I wasn't previously planning on donating any money to any elections, but I'm starting to think I should donate to the GOP. This seemingly inevitable situation is a BAD thing and could possibly tarnish Obama's presidency if they're not careful.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Nothing like a shopping spree to take care of campaign woes

OK so this is probably an odd topic to decide to make a post about seeing as how I have made so few posts lately, but...


But that isn't even what pisses me off (although its close)...

McCain also said that Barack Obama's money advantage is probably why one Florida poll shows the Democrat doing well in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed Obama up 5 percentage points overall in Florida, which went Republican in the last two presidential elections.
Seriously? You're spending six figures on pumps (what ever the hell pumps are) and you're complaining he has more money that you? Nice priorities. I'm sure there are a few financial conservatives out there who just switched their votes on that one.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

What if...

So I had a though recently.

We currently stand in the middle of a financial crisis and we have the choice of two presidential candidates who have no significant economic experience. It made me think, what if Romney had been the GOP nominee? In this crumbling economy that will no doubt still be issue one on November 4th, would Obama stood any chance against a man who's entire campaign had been centered around the economy?

Personally, I believe Romney would have been pulling landslide numbers in the polls right now if things had been different during the primaries. This reminds me of a quote from Jon Stewart, and while I can't find the direct quote it went something like this: During the primaries, everyone wanted an everyman to be president someone they could have a beer with, someone on their level. Boy, wouldn't it have been nice to have the smarty pants running for office now?!

Friday, September 19, 2008

The Blair War Interview

I have never felt smarter from watching comedy! This is an absolutely amazingly insightful interview from Jon Stewart. Take a look!

It’s amazing we have to look overseas to get a politician to come and talk to us about politics.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=185185&title=tony-blair-pt.-1
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=185186&title=tony-blair-pt.-2

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Obama on Education

I found this associated press article scrolling through my news feed this morning:


I have long since ignored my discovery from last November regarding Obama's Innovation Schools education reform plan as being just too bad to still be true. However, in this article Obama  is quoted as saying "Charter schools that are successful will get the support they need to grow [...] And charters that aren't will get shut down. I want experimentation, but I also want accountability."

As I have previously stated, in 2005 Obama gave his, "Teaching Our Kids in a 21st Century Economy" speech in at the Center for American Progress in DC. See link below:


In this speech Obama details this aspect of his plan as:

So here’s what I’m proposing: the creation of what I call Innovation Districts. School districts from around the country that want to become seedbeds of reform would apply and we’d select the twenty with the best plans to put effective, supported teachers in all classrooms and increase achievement for all students. We’d offer these districts substantial new resources to do this, but in return, we’d ask them to try systemic new reforms. Above all, we’d require results.

[...]hold schools and teachers accountable for the results of all these reforms, Innovation Districts would be asked to support schools that succeed and shut down those that don’t.

So not only is he opening up schools to be shut down for participating in an "experiment," but his entire plan is volunatry. I can't imagine many schools would like to volunteer to be a guinea pig for the chance to have their school shut down. I agree this does enforce responsibility, but this gives no benefit for participation.

This is flat out a terrible plan and the one thing that everyday keeps me from writing a check to the Obama camp and keeps me hoping that McCain will somehow reasonably explain his 90% voting record to support President Bush.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Interesting visual on Tax Cuts

So while I continue to struggle to find the time for this blog I started I found an interesting graphic that seems to help support the NYTimes article I posted last week. It breaks up both McCain's and Obama's tax plans by family income. Perhaps you'd like to see where you'll stand.



Thursday, September 4, 2008

What do I think about Sarah Palin

In my opinion, Palin was a TERRIBLE pick as VP. She brings on thing to this ticket at that is she's actually an honest Social Conservative. What does this give McCain? I don't think it gives him anything. No social conservatives, gun rights activists, anti-abortionists, were going to vote for Obama anyways. 

However, some people have got to look at the fact that McCain is damn near a dead man if he gets elected. I remember seeing pictures of Clinton and Bush before and after their presidency and seeing the accelerated aging that has taken place. All I can think is if you look at side by side before and after shots of Clinton and W. Bush and then do an artist representation of the after shot of McCain he'd draw a tomb stone. To be it seemed like one of the most important things McCain had to consider when he picked a VP was he needed to consider picking a successor. Palin's lack of experience is certainly fearful. It also undercuts McCain's argument that Obama is too young and inexperienced. It shows he has some faith in youthful enthusiasm. However, one key difference between Obama's inexperience and Palin's is that Obama had the ambition and foresight to try and use his "noobishness" as a pedestal to bring change, he sees it as an advantage. Palin herself said she didn't thing she was qualified to be VP before she was picked (couldn't find a video of the quote) and there is certainly something to be said for foresight. 

In my mind, Romney (although I, like everyone else in my state, now hates the guy) was the perfect VP on paper. McCain needed help with the party's religious base and this was Romney's main base in the Primary. This is also something Obama was trying to steal away from McCain with the Biden pick (which he played up a lot during his DNC speech). The other place where McCain was lacking was in his Economy knowledge. He's getting killed by his own confessed money ignorance, and stating the economy is sound. Although Romney isn't the best economist out there, he certainly has experience dealing with green paper and budgets. 

They say she is a opponent of the oil companies, but that is easily debunked. I mean she was just suing to stop Polar Bears from being an endangered species so they don't interfere with oil drilling. Thats a pretty serious slice of evidence to say that she is in their pocket. I personally don't buy it. You see, the thing is it doesn't really have anything to do with the animal, its that they suspect the Endangered Species Activists (animal activists not oil activists) MIGHT use it to stop oil drilling. If that is there only reason they have to not let them be considered endangered then they are basically endangered, they are just stopping the protective label. If the ESA does do this, and they aren't founded in doing so then they should make that case in court, not stop them from being protected elsewhere. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKwZNwdowa4

Lastly, I CAN'T WAIT for the VP debate. Biden will eat her alive.

Does economic history side with Red or Blue?

Interesting NY Times article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/31/business/31view.html?_r=1&em=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1220526721-t9PAaJCKEsmTrHq5oizD1g

Friday, August 29, 2008

The DNC - All the speeches

If you're like me and you didn't have all the time in the world to sitting around waiting for Politicians to make their way to the microphone at the DNC over the past week the you'll find the following link very helpful.

http://www.demconvention.com/

My take on the speeches (of the ones I saw that is):
  • First off, the Ted Kennedy tribute isn't on that site. You can find it here. Its a very moving video and helps to explain his support for Barack Obama and how much of a hard decision it must have been to support him over Hillary. This together with his speech almost had me in tears.
  • Michelle Obama did an amazing job humanizing their campaign, giving the family touch to their hopes for the next 4 years.
  • John Kerry gave some great insight over something that had been troubling me. How have they spun the "Mavrick" Republican as "Bushes third term?"
  • Hillary Clinton did exactly what she needed to do for the Party and for herself. She came off as a strong Unifier and support of BO, but didn't come off as just rolling over.
  • Bill Clinton as essentially just giving his support. It really wasn't a significant speech.
  • Joe Biden gave a great introduction to himself and his new role as VP. He also give a moving tribute to his mother.
  • I haven't seen Obama's speech yet, but I plan on it as soon as I publish this post.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Electoral Vote Tracker

So I swear I haven't forgotten about this website. A friend of mine just sent me this great resource that shows Electoral Vote Polls by a Map of the U.S. and says its updated daily. How can you not love it?!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

ITS OVAH!

Just as predicted, the Superdelegates, by CNN's prediction, just barely pushed Obama within scoring range (4 delegates away) before the polls closed and the States decided (even though the votes weren't technically counted yet). Its been exciting and I still have to write a McCain review, and update Obama's review as I personally consider a lot of the information inaccurate at this stage of the game. Anyways, here's some viewing material from last night.

For Convenience:
Clinton's Speech
- http://youtube.com/watch?v=7aNOqutPyPs
Obama's Speech (terrible quality)
- http://youtube.com/watch?v=bKk42xjq9iM
McCain Speech (throwing punches early)
- http://youtube.com/watch?v=A7RuX4pQPLY
View Point on the "Dream Ticket"
- http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qpsw1STeYMQ

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

The League of Senator Superdelegates to the Rescue!

It's not quite the Justice League, but it'll do.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/02/superdelegates/index.html

In my mind, if they were smart they would have voted already but just enough of them to let these last two remaining states push him over the top. Doing so would have given the end a more, voted in by the people, feel. Having him get the needed delegates after the fact seems anti-climatic.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Is it over yet?

Is this the end?

Tomorrow (Sunday) and this Tuesday are the last two primaries for the Democratic Nomination. But it still could be a very close race! Here are the numbers:

Obama has 42 delegates left
Clinton has 244 delegates left

From RealClearPolitics.com which shows there is only 86 delegates left from 3 "states" (Puerto Rico what?) being held on two days within the next week. In other words, YAY ITS FINALLY ALMOST OVER! (but is it?) While Clinton will not beat Obama to the 2,026 delegate count, she can stop him from making the number. Obama has to basically win at least half of all the remaining pledged delegates to win.

However, there are 190 Super Delegates still undeclared which means that actually BOTH candidates have a chance at the nomination! So it isn't over, but it isn't likely that Clinton will win, with Florida and Michigan or not.


So why have all these super delegates been holding out from voting?

I heard on CNN from Donna Brazile, one of their political analysts and a superdelegate, that she has not yet declared her vote because she hopes it will help to unify the party. What does that mean? Well to me I believe it means they may not be voting because they are hoping the pledged delegates, the votes of the people, will decide the nominee. Thus these super delegates have decided to vote like citizens and they will hopefully never have to use their super-vote. Certainly, if pledged delegates decide the outcome, there will be little controversy.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

The Third Dimension of the Primaries

This comes directly from CNN's Ballot bowl on 3/22/08 (no link to compliment this story can be found). They are reporting that besides the contest between Pledged Delegates and Superdelegates in this primary there is a third dimension that hasn't been examined yet which is, the popular vote.

Currently the delegate count is as follows:

-= Total =-
Obama: 1,622
Clinton: 1,485

-= Pledged =-
Obama: 1,413
Clinton: 1,242

-= Super =-
Obama: 209
Clinton: 243

Clinton still maintains a lead in superdelegates, but Obama has almost too substantial a lead on Pledged Delegates for Clinton to/ catch up. However, according to realclearpolitics.com the popular vote tells a different story.

-= Popular Vote =-
Obama: 13,281,132
Clinton: 12,577,409
These numbers do not include the states of (IA, NV, WA & ME) that do not include the head count from their primaries, but it shows that the difference between Clinton and Obama could be as small as some 700K votes. If you include the vote from the Florida election, which is still up for debate, you get:

-= Popular Vote with Florida =-
Obama: 13,857,346
Clinton: 13,448,395

This difference then shrinks to 400K, which is almost half of the divide. The Michigan vote isn't fair to include because Obama wasn't on the ballot.

The point of this isn only to say that Clinton could use this as leverage during the convention if she does indeed win the Popular vote but has not won the Delegate count.

If you'd like an explaination of Pledged Delegates vs. Superdelegates you can check the link.

Friday, March 21, 2008

Democrats endorsing eachother??

Bill Richardson endorsed Barack Obama today. There seems to be some debate over how signficant this is, but this seems like a bit win to me. Bill Richardson may not have that much influlence over the Clintons in the Latino vote, but it does bring attention to the fact that his race speech is significant to Latios as well as African Americans (as was highlighted in his endorsement speech). Also Richardson's call to back and candidate and focus on McCain as a party is something we haven't really hard the Democratic party talk much about yet (at least not as much as the Republicans were after Romney dropped out).

Lastly, the whole Obama is "a real good guy" seemed pretty significant as well.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/03/21/politics/fromtheroad/entry3958349.shtml

Update: Here is a link to his endorsement speech:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=y62jhStuawA

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Obama's Race Speech

Well its all the buzz today. I'm listening to Obama's race speech as I write this post as I, like many missed the list broadcast. For others who also missed this speech you can find it at the link below:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/18/obama-race-speech-read-t_n_92077.html

Also here is one of the speeches by Obama's minister, Jeremiah Wright, that spawned the above speech.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=vdJB-qkfUHc

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Florida do-over, not in the bag yet

... mail bag that is.

If you haven't been following this, there has been a push to get Florida and Michigan's delegates counted since the election is so close. However, since both states still held elections and some Candidates even put money into those state's elections the cost of having a do-over seems too great. There was a recent plan of holding a mail in primary, which would obviously be much less expensive (unless you're a tree), however CNN is reporting now that this probably isn't going to work.

Apparently Florida has a law against mail in elections. Back to the drawing board Howard Dean!


BACKGROUND:
In case you haven't followed the origins of this problem. Both Florida and Michigan tried to give themselves a more significant role in the Primaries by moving their date forward. Well actually its not totally the Florida and Michigan Democrat's fault. The states' Republicans tried to move up the date first and the democrats (wanting to keep a consistent date) tried to follow. I'm not completely sure if this is how it played out, but I heard the date they choose was going to play out as occurring before Iowa and New Hampshire (the states that hold the "First in the Nation" status). Apparently though, Florida and Michigan didn't go through the proper channels to get permission from the Democratic National Convention to move their primary date ahead. As such the DNC striped these states of their delegates and thus all the participation rights in Democratic Primaries.

Nonetheless, Michigan and Florida had their primaries, but candidates were apparently instructed to not actively participate in them. Hillary Clinton and some other democratic candidates (John Edwards and Barack Obama were not included and weren't even on the ballot) broke that rule in Michigan. Later, when Florida had their turn, all Candidates then broke the rule and campaigned in the primary, but not vigorously as these states were not supposed to count.

To see more details about how these elections turned out check out the bottom of this blog for that and all post Super Tuesday primaries and caucus results.

Monday, March 10, 2008

No media bias here, nope... none at all.

The Clinton camp has been saying for a long time that the media has been showing a bias towards Barack Obama. I first read about this bias early on in the primaries from a disgruntled poster on a CNN site and the suspicion has stuck with me. I as I have caught roughly 90% of all the primaries live and watched the commentary this bias has been all too apparent to me. I'm making this post now because I found this article from the Associated Press (this is certainly not unique to them though its a fairly universal bias with the exception of Fox News which just hates all Democrats) that is quite strangely biased. While I have no doubt of the validity of what is being reported. It seems peculiar, however, that the media would ever go out of its way to protect ANY politician.

An Obama-Rezko Primer

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Post March 4th Primary Cliff Notes

Democratic Side
  • Obama won Vermont as his 12th straight victory
  • Clinton then won Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island
  • Clinton's net gain for the night was 4 delegates
  • The next big primary is in Pennsylvania on April 22nd
  • There is also Primaries on March 8th in Wyoming and March 11th in Mississippi
  • Spin Item: Clinton is proclaiming, "As Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation's coming back and so is this campaign."
  • Spin Item: Clinton is suggesting the primary end in a shared ticket.

Republican Side
  • McCain won the nomination
  • Huckabee has dropped out
  • McCain congratulated Huckabee in his acceptance speech
  • Bush backed McCain in a lunch meeting today (5/5/08)
  • Bush has called Huckabee, Romney, Paul, Hunter, Thompson and Giuliani to congratulate them. (could not find source)

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

No hitting below the belt, I want a clean fight

The associated press put out a good article on the rules of the Texas and Ohio Primaries. It also points our how it would be very difficult for either Clinton or Obama win big in either state. Texas' primary is surprisingly complex and it could be a long night of counting votes.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Mini Super Tuesday

Texas, Vermont, Ohio, and RI are having their primary tomorrow and the time for this number of delegates to go up for bid couldn't be better. We could very well see the end of competition for both primaries, but in different ways:

If McCain wins big tomorrow then he will have actually gained the delegates needed to win the GOP Primary, thus ending the race. Likewise, on the Democratic side, if Obama wins big, he will probably have gained enough delegates where he'll effectively have this race in the bag. If he wins BIG or sweeps all four states, he'll very likely start being referred to as the "like Democratic party nominee."

On the flip side though are the two underdogs, Huckabee and Clinton. If Clinton wins big she effectively hurls herself back into this race and makes it anybody's game. However a Huckabee win will be much less exciting. As I said before, I'm really loving Huckabee's "hang in there kid" attitude, but a victory will only really delay the inevitable. If Huckabee stops McCain from winning the primary tomorrow it will be a big embarrassment, as he should win no contest.

My predictions
------------
McCain gets the nomination
Obama does indeed win, but just as many other states have played out, he will not win big. Clinton and him will be neck and it will probably not be enough to stop caring about the race. The question is, would Clinton ever pull out? I don't think she would, but unless she does catchup she really should and spare America the possible conspiracy of going to convention.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Wag the Dog

So its been a little while since I've made a post. I've basically been dedicating most of my time to getting the McCain review out, but its going slowly as I try to find the free time to do it. Besides that, during my commute I've been reading the 9/11 Commission's Report and found something very interesting.

Apparently, there were two organized plans formed by the Clinton administration in 1997 and then again in 98 to apprehend, and take out Usama Bin Laden, respectively. The first was shot down due to low success rate and for political reasons, but did come very close to being executed. The second took place during the Whitewater Scandal and inspired the movie "Wag the Dog." Which people. This attack was executed specifically to launch cruise missiles at a meeting being held by Bin Laden and Bin Laden himself was the primary target. Its amazing how much slack Clinton took for launching this attack, that if happened today, regardless of any national politics would have received nothing but praise.

Why did it fail? Well shortly before this was the almost simultaneous nuclear weapons tests done by both India and Pakistan. The cruise missiles, in order to reach their target in Afghanistan, had to fly over Pakistan and as such the US wanted to inform Pakistan that these were our missiles and not India's to avoid a potentially disastrous situation. We know today that almost certainly, that Bin Laden had many friends in Pakistan and he was likely informed and able to leave the premises in time to avoid the attack. Sadly, before 9/11 not many people knew exactly how much influence Al-Qaeda had around the middle east.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

America knows drama!

I should have made a post about it so the time stamp would have been evidence of my prediction. I've have a couple eye witnesses though that I gave this prediction though (for whatever thats worth). My prediction was with Romney out of the race, Huckabee may do significantly better than McCain in the coming primaries. Yesterday's primaries proved me right. CNN reported many times last night that it is almost mathematically impossible for Huckabee to win the election now, to which he responds (multiple times yesterday), “Folks, I didn’t major in math. I majored in miracles and I still believe in miracles.” If he does win, I may be saying bye bye to Catholicism and hello Baptism because he is obviously doing something right. Regardless, I've developed a serious case of the Underdogies (kind of like having a case of the Sillies or the Clumsies) and I'm routing for him.

On the Democratic side, its still a slight case of the people versus the party. As of noonish today, here's the superdelegate and pledged delegate predictions:

Clinton - Pledged: 885
Clinton - Superdelegates: 223
Obama - Pledged: 918
Obama - Superdelegates: 131

Obama leads by 33 votes made by the people and Clinton leads by 92 votes made by the party. This still doesn't say that Superdeletages are necessarily not voting with the people, Clinton may have just won states that just had a higher percentage of its votes consist of Superdelegats and I'm not not curious enough to backtracking through all of Super Tuesday to see just what happened. However, the numbers do suggest that the party is straying away from the people's choice. CNN reported last night (yeah I watched the news a lot yesterday) that Superdelegates were originally created to keep the primaries from being ridiculous (lets not forget that Stephen Colbert tried to join the race on his show at one point and I for one would have welcomed the Superdelegates if he succeeded), but they also argued last night that they might be making the situation worse!

To top that off, the Clintons are making an effort to get Michigan and Florida to count for the Primary! When it becomes DNC time, they are going to make a legal effort to get these votes to count. If this happens, its an injustice! Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan because he choose to save campaign funds instead of showboating. Clinton opted to go showboating and won both these states (Obama was on the ballot in Florida) that had lost their delegates. I hadn't noticed this before, but if you look at the primary results (from the Associated Press) at the bottom of this blog you'll notice something shocking. Michigan and Florida were previously in possession of a HUGE number of delegates! Michigan was entitled to 156 and Florida 210, making up 8.3% of the Nation's delegates. That is a huge chunk that Clinton will try to get activated at the end of the election that most of the candidates were told didn't matter. There was some talk about having a do-over in those states, but elections cost money, and a lot of it. Plus since Clinton pushed to have these state's voices heard, she will probably have earned an advantage among the people if the do-over came to pass.

This election just keeps getting better and better. The watching the general election will be like, well like watching the news by comparison.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

In an equally confusing story: Ron Paul still in race?

Romney dropped out? How does the runner up say, second place isn't good enough? While I am severely confused by this news it is interesting to see if Romney's supporters will go to McCain and rocket him to victory or give Huckabee a shot at appearing as a more strategically viable candidate. Critics of McCain say that he is far too liberal to win the Republican ballot, this now makes Huckabee the most likely conservative candidate for the GOP.

The Primaries just keeps on throwing out plot twists. If they weren't on strike, I'd say the writers of Heroes has something to do with this.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

So whats the deal with New Mexico?

Based on the current primary results from CNN's primary report on 2/7/08, there are just over one thousand votes that separate Clinton and Obama in New Mexico. According to the Associated Press, there are 17,000 provincial ballots that still need to be counted. Thankfully, (sort of) I had to fill out a provincial ballot for my Primary vote so I actually know what this is. Although I can't find a good definition online (wikipedia let me down), as I understand it a provincial ballot is a ballot that needs additional research to validate the eligibility of their voter registration. This process could take several days to get all these votes counted. So of those 17,000 votes, some may not get counted, but because they are lumped together from all over the state there is no way to predict for anyone where these votes will go. NM is still anyone's game. There are still almost 17 times as many votes up for grabs as there are separating the two candidates, but with a race this close its quite possible that they will remain half and half.

Super Tuesday Resuts (minus NM)

So Super Tuesday is done and the results (with the exception of New Mexico for the Democrats and here are the results) as reported by CNN:

McCain: 559
Romney: 265
Huckabee: 169

Clinton: 783
Obama: 709

McCain has pulled a head as a clear front runner, but the Democratic race is much closer. There is actually a bit of a misnomer about the results if you examine the contribution of Pledged and Super Delegates

Clinton - Pledged: 590
Clinton - Superdelegates: 193
Obama - Pledged: 603
Obama - Superdelegates: 106

Now if you don't know, the difference between a Pledged and Superdelegate is as follows. Pledged Delegates are what most people think of when they think of Delegates. These are actual "points" awarded to Primary Candidates that are awarded based on how they did in the primary voting. Anyone over 13% (may vary) of the vote gets a percentage of the delegates. Some states have a winner takes all system where whoever wins the primary election wins all Pledged Delegates.

Superdelegates are a special status, used mostly by the Democrats, awarded to their higher officials. That Super delegate's "point" can be assigned to any primary candidate it so chooses. They are not restricted to giving their vote to the winner of the election.

What does this mean? It means that Obama is ACTUALLY winning the election part of the primaries, but by a very small amount (13 delegates). All of Clinton's lead can be attributed to the fact that she has almost 100 more Superdelegate votes than Obama. This means that Clinton is possibly winning because she has more ties in the DNC than Obama does. While favoritism is an obvious scapegoat it is possible that these officials are still basing their vote on the issues and there isn't much to read into this. It is interesting to see that Obama is actually favored in the election and it just shows how close this race really is.

Update: As of 1AM on Feb 7th (yeah, I know I should go to bed) CNN has come out with better Super Tuesday predictions which gives McCain a larger lead and makes the Democratic even closer.

McCain: 680
Romney: 270
Huckabee: 176

Clinton: 823
Obama: 741

The Democratic Delegate breakdown is estimated as follows:

Clinton - Pledged: 630
Clinton - Superdelegates: 193
Obama - Pledged: 635
Obama - Superdelegates: 106

While the Superdelegates haven't changed the Pledged Delegates now only shows a difference of five votes. Obama has claimed Super Tuesday as a victory for this election and I would certainly agree even though he is still behind in the election.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Delegates Before Super Tuesday

Today is the big day! Here are the standings as of Monday.

McCain: 111
Romney: 94
Huckabee: 29

Clinton: 241
Obama: 169

Lets see what happens!

Friday, February 1, 2008

Pre-Super Tuesday Debates

Wednesday Night - WWRRD

I was a bit turned off by the Republican Debates. Don't get me wrong, I know the debate was set in the Reagan Library and I fully believe he was a great President, but the focus on Reagan was a little but to pronounced. Huckabee gained a lot of points in my book with his answer to the last question of the night ("Would Reagan have endorsed you for President?") where he responded:
I think it would be incredibly presumptuous and even arrogant for me to try to suggest what Ronald Reagan would do, that he would endorse any of us against the others.

Let me just say this, I'm not going to pretend he would endorse me. I wish he would. I would love that, but I endorse him, and I'm going to tell you why[...]

For a bunch that seems so respectful of the man, the question itself does seem a bit presumptuous.

Besides that, the big news coming out of the debate was Mr. "Straight Talk Express" (as Obama called him last night) hitting Romney below the axle. McCain accused Romney of supporting a time table of withdrawal from Iraq (i.e. conservative poison) where many sources and my own research seem to point to as being false. McCain who has had a lot of star power lately, and has so far ran a clean campaign, could suffer from this attack more than it could help him. McCain may have one this debate, but at what cost?

Thursday Night - Queensberry Politics

The Democratic debate last night was without victory. Any punches thrown were gentle and eloquently phrased. If nothing else, it was a testament to how well these two politicians can shelve personal ambitions in favor of civil discourse. Strangely, harder punches were thrown from CNN's Wolf Blitzer who was running the debate than either candidate. It was almost a more exciting debate due to the suspense of seeing if anyone was going loose their cool. It was an impressive display in my opinion.

Transcripts
Republican Debate Transcript.
Democratic Debate Transcript.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Candidate Response

Theres a lot of content out there coming in droves with all the political activity. As such, I'm not giving any verbose write up on these. These links are various candidate responses I've found to Bush's State of the Union address.

Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/28/obama-response-to-bushs-_n_83732.html
Clinton
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=5562
McCain http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-28-2008/0004744550&EDATE=
Romney
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iibMea7x51A

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Candidate: Hillary Rodham Clinton

My Primary Source: N/A
POV: N/A
Bias: N/A
Reason for Source: I'm choosing to omit reference, as I'm sure it won't be used and isn't worth the time I put into reading it.

Health Care
: Sources: Health Care Costs Agenda and American Health Choices Plan (PDF)
There's a lot ton ingest with Clinton's health care plan, and I'm not expert on health care. Honestly I've had trouble understanding my own health plan. However, I've read the documents above and can give some outline to their content and in doing so provide a summary of what has been coined HiliaryCare.

One major reform HilliaryCare plans to initiate is enforce and help subsidize the implementation of a paperless electronic record system. This will bring patients medical history up to the modern age and provide saving over the paper version estimated at $77 billion (I assume this is after the cost of implementation have been spent, or before they are taken into account). HilliaryCare also plans on reducing the bloated Medicare costs given to HMOs which will reduce overall costs of health care making the costs much more manageable (by about $10 billion). HC also has plans to reduce the need for health care by investing in adding incentives (such as removing co-pays) for preventative measures (such as colorectal screening and getting doctor advice on weight, nutrition, or exercise). This might not only make economic sense, but will improve the wellbeing of America overall.

Individuals, or heads of the household will be able to choose from health plans that members of Congress enjoy. However, responsibility of choosing the health plan that best fits their situation is placed on the individual to figure that out. To help compensate that, tax breaks will be given to working individuals to better deal with the affordability of Health Care

One key advantages of national health care worth mentioning is that it gives stability in the form of a health plan not dependent on employment status or a change of employment.

Iraq War
: Summarized from Clinton's website, her Iraq plan is as follows. Her plan has been broken down into three parts: Bring the troops home, within the first 60 days of her administration, then focus "redeployment on stabilizing Iraq, not propping up the Iraqi government" and lastly stabilize Iraq by asking Iraq's neighbors not to intervene, provide deplomatic mediation between factions, and also provide reconstruction funding. Also during a conversation over a cup of coffee with a group of Iowans, she states, "unless they do the political work, they are going to be on their own."

Economy & Budget
: I certanly picked the right time to write this analysis. Four days ago Clinton released an economic stimulus plan. The plan focuses on assisting on the crisis in housing, energy assistance, and unemployment insurance as well as other things. A blogger for the Clinton team already as given a pretty good summary of the plan. I recommend checking that out.

Environment
: Again, taken from her website, regarding Global Warming and Energy Independence, Clinton plans include:

"setting ambitious targets, the plan would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of global warming, and cut foreign oil imports by two-thirds from 2030 projected levels, more than 10 million barrels per day.

"increase fuel efficiency standards to 55 miles per gallon by 2030, but would help automakers retool their production facilities through $20 billion in "Green Vehicle Bonds.

"transition our economy toward renewable energy sources, with renewables generating 25 percent of electricity by 2025 and with 60 billion gallons of home-grown biofuels available for cars and trucks by 2030

"A requirement that all federal buildings designed after January 20, 2009 will be zero emissions buildings."

Globalization: I had a very difficult time roping this one and frankly I can't grab a good answer. Much of the internet's debate on Clinton and Globalization focuses on her opinion of President's Free Trade act. However, I found many sources that seemed to express their opinion on wither she would support or not support her husband's work. I just can NOT find a straight answer to this question though.

Abortion: Clinton has been statically pro-choice. A record of her voting since 2004 on the issue of abortion can be found here. One particular item of note from this page is "Voted NO on notifying parents of minors who get out-of-state abortions. (Jul 2006)"

Immigration: Clinton adds an interesting dimension of the immigration debate, family. Her otherwise fairly generic policy of identify who is in our country illegally, and securing our boarder (not badly generic in any way by any means) is offset by supporting families of legal immigrants to not be separated. Other points include: "strict penalties for those who exploit undocumented workers, and a path to earned legal status for those who are here, working hard, paying taxes, respecting the law, and willing to meet a high bar."

Read more about Clinton's stance on Immigration here.

Education
: Analysis omitted for my own sanity. Here is the long version:

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/education/

Civil Rights: Analysis omitted for my own sanity. Much of Clinton's focus on Civil rights focuses on women. Here is the long version:

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/women/

Other Notables: Clinton has a strong focus on women's rights. Attending the United Nations Conference on Women in Beijing in 1995, and introducing the Paycheck Fairness Act are just a few of the things Clinton has done to benefit women in general. See a more comprehensive list here.

Personal Opinion (section to extract my emotional commentary out of the above as best as I can):
This review was a long time coming and its very much tied to why I didn't make a reference to a Primary Source this time. I did read a book on Clinton, called The Case for Hillary Clinton , which the first time I've ever considered burning a book. I'm only linking it because I'm mentioning it and I just can't not mention how bad this book was. The argument the author makes for Clinton is vote for her because she is a woman. She even takes it one step further to say, "I have always believed that there is a special place in hell for woman who turn their backs on other women." When I read that I was surprised my glare didn't set the book on fire alone. Damn my persistence though, I decided to give the author a fair shot to clarify her point to be made of something less ignorant, but that never happened. This is however purely my opinion, and if this opinion appeals to you, please feel free to pick up this book and give it a good read.

I want to stress though, that the author makes it clear that her opinion is her own, and NOT that of Senator Clinton.

That being said, what do I think about Clinton, reading as much as I can to recover from the monstrosity of that book? I like her, but I like her in a way that focuses more on not disliking her. First off, as much as I have tried to shrug off reading that book, it didn't work and I currently am trying to patch up this post having not completed the sections on Globalization, Educations and Civil Rights, while feeling very burned out on politics. From what I did research, I saw nothing I disliked and as such I think she'd do well as Commander in Chief.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Super Tuesday is not going to be so super

I just came across this article by the Associated Press that states it is mathematically impossible for Super Tuesday to decide the winner of either primary because both GOP and DNC races are so close. So even if each party's front runner (Clinton and Romney) won every delegate up for grats on February 5th, neither would have actually won the election (although they would basically be in the bag at that point). It seems as though the real Super Tuesday could be March 4th where the second highest amount of delegates are up for grabs. My jokes about the Primaries being the new drama on CNN is actually turning out to be fairly accurate.

To see a list of delegates up for grabs throughout the primaries, check here.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/republicanprimaries/index.html

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Romney takes his turn in the winner's circle

First Huckabee, then McCain, and now Romney. It's almost as if the Republicans are taking turns in the spotlight. Not a one of these races seem telling in any way as to what the end result will be. As far as I can tell both Republicans and Democrats are too close to say that any victory is very telling or significant. I fully expect to see Giuliani or Thomson to pull a victory in South Carolina just to keep up the trend. Hell throw Edwards a win as well just to make everyone more confused. North and South Carolina are close enough anyways to give Edwards an advantage right?

Presidential Primary Schedule 2008

So far I've been having trouble keeping track of when all these primaries are actually taking place. I found a schedule and figured its worth sharing.

Alphebetical by State
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/2008pdates.pdf
Alphebetical by State (with more info, from Ron Paul's website)
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/primary-and-caucus-information/
Chronological
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html


Thats all for now, episode 3 of The Primaries (yeah I changed the name) is tonight. Hope I don't miss it!

Update: I added the link to the New York Times posted schedule. This is the only one of the links I've found so far that goes in chronological order rather than alphabetical by state. I also added a link to Ron Paul's hosted list which has much more info about each Primary or Caucus. I'm leaving the original up there because if Ron Paul drops out his website may go down.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

NH Caucus Predictions

So as it stands, as I write this, only 10% of the vote has been collected and I'm watching CNN, who paying very close attention on the Democrat's side, which I agree has been infinitely more interesting, and telling doomsday stories about how anything short of a win is game over for Clinton. I disagree with this opinion so I figured, well why not put it in writing with. As such I turned off my T.V. and decided I might as well put it in writing. Now this is the first time I've ever closely followed a presidential race so any accuracy will be pure awesome for my own self esteem, but probably nothing but chance, and up until this point I've seen myself as nothing but an attempted objective researcher. So here goes:


First off, Clinton does not need a win. A close second or even another ridiculously close third will keep her in the race. It would be a complete waste if she dropped out for any reason and I believe she should ever feel that its necessary. Obama will do well, first or second for sure as there is no chance any other candidate has any chance of beating him other than Clinton, which is probably why Edwards and Obama have seemingly stuck a deal as of late to focus fire on Clinton (can't find my reference but it was from Associated Press just after the Iowa caucus). I also Edwards will not finish as strongly in NH as he did in Iowa. I last saw he was last at 17% to Clinton and Obama's 37%. I believe this will be pretty much how it will be for Edwards.

On the Republican side, like many, I have no idea what the heck is going on. The man everyone thought would show the most star power, Giuliani has been a bomb shell diving straight to the bottom. Romney will probably do well to his neighboring state while governor. Whither he will do better than Huckabee is anyone's guess as most people still don't know where he came from and exactly how much political power does Chuck Norris actually have.

Ok thats all I have.

P.S. Woops, I forgot about McCain. I just saw he is projected to win NH, but honestly, how is that not expected. He won the NH caucus in 2000. However, like in 2000 I honestly don't believe McCain has more primary power than Edwards. Hope for a VP ticket or you're SOL.

P.P.S. Figured I'd include this interesting link on recent caucus history.

http://www.neatorama.com/2008/01/04/iowa-caucus-vs-new-hampshire-primary-which-is-the-better-predictor/

P.P.P.S. At 61% of the votes counted, I'm calling it. Obama sqeeks by Clinton and wins.

Monday, January 7, 2008

New Show on CNN: The Caucuses

Man I don't know about anyone else, but I can't wait for the second episode of The Caucuses tonight! Who knew Obama would come out as Democratic Tribal leader and Dodd and Biden would get voted off the island? Seeing as they are both also Democrats I guess the Republicans must have been awarded immunity.

I wonder if anyone will get voted off tonight?



So yeah, this isn't a serious post. It does kinda feel like they are covering the caucuses like reality television though. As such I've started thinking of it like watching Survivor or American Idol with speeches instead of singing. I can just see CNN stealing a page from TNT and adopting the slogan "We know drama!"

Anyways, enjoy the show tonight!

Friday, January 4, 2008

Iowa Caucuses

Man who predicted that last night (well besides Chuck Norris who can probably predict the future or [Insert random Chuck Norris joke here])?

I'm honestly speechless. Two months ago I don't think I even knew who Mike Huckabee was, and now he has sealed his place as a contender for the GOP nomination. Romney bombing in Iowa was something no one could have predicted either. Hell, the only place he was probably suspected to do better in was Utah. I'm also more than shocked that Giuiliani wasn't even on the radar in Iowa. Coming into the race, he probably held the most star power of any of the candidates, now he's just one of those guys trailing in the back of the crowd asking the guy in the big hat in front of him whats going on up front.

There wasn't as many surprises on the Dem side though. I think Clinton is taking the right approach with the results. Coming in 3rd place, by a margin of 1% is nothing to feel discouraged about. On the other hand, Edwards should be jumping out of his skin right now. He has a lot of underdog momentum right now, but I would suspect it might not last as long as he might hope. One thing I'm not surprised about is Obama's success. It was either going to be him or Clinton, he just came up on top. It still is absolutely anyone's game on the blue side, but I'm surprised its anyone's game between 3 people as opposed to 2.

Here are the results of the Iowa caucus from the Associated Press